Objective verifications and false alarm analyses of western North Pacific tropical cyclone event forecasts by the ECMWF 32-day ensemble   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hsiao-Chung Tsai  Russell L. Elsberry  Mary S. Jordan  Frédéric Vitart 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2013,49(4):409-420

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Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David W. Pierce  Tapash Das  Daniel R. Cayan  Edwin P. Maurer  Norman L. Miller  Yan Bao  M. Kanamitsu  Kei Yoshimura  Mark A. Snyder  Lisa C. Sloan  Guido Franco  Mary Tyree 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):839-856

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.  相似文献   

Connecting atmospheric science and atmospheric models for aerocapture at Titan and the outer planets     

C.G. Justus  Vernon W. Keller  Mary Kae Lockwood 《Planetary and Space Science》2005,53(5):601-605

Many atmospheric measurement systems, such as the sounding instruments on Voyager, gather atmospheric information in the form of temperature versus pressure level. In these terms, there is considerable consistency among the mean atmospheric profiles of the outer planets Jupiter through Neptune, including Titan. On a given planet or on Titan, the range of variability of temperature versus pressure level due to seasonal, latitudinal, and diurnal variations is also not large. However, many engineering needs for atmospheric models relate not to temperature versus pressure level but atmospheric density versus geometric altitude. This need is especially true for design and analysis of aerocapture systems. Drag force available for aerocapture is directly proportional to atmospheric density. Available aerocapture “corridor width” (allowable range of atmospheric entry angle) also depends on height rate of change of atmospheric density, as characterized by density scale height. Characteristics of hydrostatics and the gas law equation mean that relatively small systematic differences in temperature versus pressure profiles can integrate at high altitudes to very large differences in density versus altitude profiles. Thus, a given periapsis density required to accomplish successful aerocapture can occur at substantially different altitudes (∼150-300 km) on the various outer planets, and significantly different density scale heights (∼20-50 km) can occur at these periapsis altitudes. This paper will illustrate these effects and discuss implications for improvements in atmospheric measurements to yield significant impact on design of aerocapture systems for future missions to Titan and the outer planets. Relatively small-scale atmospheric perturbations, such as gravity waves, tides, and other atmospheric variations can also have significant effect on design details for aerocapture guidance and control systems. This paper will discuss benefits that would result from improved understanding of Titan and outer planetary atmospheric perturbation characteristics. Details of recent engineering-level atmospheric models for Titan and Neptune will be presented, and effects of present and future levels of atmospheric uncertainty and variability characteristics will be examined.  相似文献   

On the analysis of light curves in asteroseismology     

David L. Mary 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2005,26(2-3):283-292

We provide a detailed introduction to the main problems arising when analyzing light curves in asteroseismology. Attention is first paid to the signal model delivered by the pulsating stars and to the noise sources corrupting this model in photometric observations. The main pitfalls and ambiguities occurring in Fourier analysis are summarized and illustrated. Some classical, Least Squares (LS) based methods for spectrum analysis are analyzed and commented on from the point of view of ill-posed problems. The insight that can be gained from such analyses is discussed.  相似文献   

Summary results from a pilot study conducted around an oil production platform on the Northwest Shelf of Australia   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

King SC  Johnson JE  Haasch ML  Ryan DA  Ahokas JT  Burns KA 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(11):1163-1172

The Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) conducted a pilot study around the Harriet A oil production platform on the Northwest Shelf of Australia. We evaluated hepatic ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity, fluorescent aromatic compounds (FACs) in bile and immunodetection of CYP1A-like proteins in two Australian tropical fish species, Gold-Spotted Trevally (Carangoides fulvoguttatus) and Bar-Cheeked Coral Trout (Plectropomus maculatus) to assess exposure to petroleum hydrocarbons associated with produced formation water (PFW). Additionally, the incidence of hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria isolated from the liver and bile of all fish captured was examined. Low EROD activity was found in both species, with EROD activity in C. fulvoguttatus showing significant site differences. FACs and CYP1A protein levels in C. fulvoguttatus showed a clear trend in hydrocarbon exposure consistent with hydrocarbon chemistry data: Harriet A>Harriet C>reference site. P. maculatus showed elevated levels of FACs at Harriet A as compared to the reference site and demonstrated detectable levels of CYP1A-like proteins at these two sites. Hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria were found in the liver and bile of both species, yet there was no correlation by sites. Our results demonstrate that C. fulvoguttatus and P. maculatus have potential as indicator species for assessing the effects from exposure to petroleum hydrocarbons. Both FACs and CYP1A are providing warning signs that there is potential for biological effects on fish populations exposed to PFW around the Harriet A production platform.  相似文献   

Interannual to decadal variations of precipitation and daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures in southern Brazil     

Mary Toshie Kayano  Clovis Sansígolo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,97(1-2):81-90

The interannual to decadal variability of precipitation and daily maximum and daily minimum temperature (TMAX and TMIN) in southern Brazil for the 1913–2006 period is investigated using indices for these variables. Relations of these indices and the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4 index) and southwestern subtropical Atlantic (SSA index) are also investigated. Analyses are based on the Morlet wavelet transform. The interannual precipitation variability during the 1913–2006 period is mostly due to the high variances that occurred in specific sub-periods. The TMAX and TMIN indices also show significant interannual variability. The coherency and phase difference analyses of the precipitation index and the SST indices show higher coherency with the Niño 3.4 than with the SSA index. On the other hand, examining the coherencies and phase difference between the temperature indices and the SST indices, weaker coherencies with the Niño 3.4 index than with the SSA index are noted. These differences are discussed in the context of previous results. The new results here, with possible application for climate monitoring tasks, refer to the spectral differences between TMIN and TMAX.  相似文献   

Determination of the onset dates of the rainy season in central Amazon with equatorially antisymmetric outgoing longwave radiation     

Sâmia R. Garcia  Mary T. Kayano 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,97(3-4):361-372

The present work provides a new methodology to determine onset dates of the rainy season (ONR) in central Amazon (CAM) using the antisymmetric in relation to the equator outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) (AOLR) data, for the 1979–2006 period. Spatial averages of the AOLR ( $\overline {AOLR} $ ) over the CAM for the ONR periods are obtained. These periods correspond to 25 pentads centered on the mean pentad for the ONR. The sign changes from positive to negative of the $\overline {AOLR} $ for the ONR periods indicate the transition from dry to wet season. Composites of several variables are done for pentads before and after the ONR dates. These composites show physically consistent features. The potential of the $\overline {AOLR} $ time series as an index for monitoring tasks is analyzed. The results here show that the $\overline {AOLR} $ for the ONR period captures the transition from dry to wet conditions in the CAM area during 2006. The advantages of this method are discussed. The new simple method proposed here seems to be efficient in determining the ONR in the CAM.  相似文献   

Temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau during the past 600 years inferred from ice cores and tree rings     

Bao Yang  Achim Bruning  Jingjing Liu  Mary E. Davis  Shao Yajun 《Global and Planetary Change》2009,69(1-2):71-78

The climatological signal of δ¹⁸O variations preserved in ice cores recovered from Puruogangri ice field in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) was calibrated with regional meteorological data for the past 50 years. For the period AD 1860–2000, 5-yearly averaged ice core δ¹⁸O and a summer temperature reconstruction derived from pollen data from the same ice core were compared. The statistical results provide compelling evidence that Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸O variations represent summer temperature changes for the central TP, and hence regional temperature history during the past 600 years was revealed. A comparison of Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸О with several other temperature reconstructions shows that broad-scale climate anomalies since the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the eastern and southern TP, and the Himalayas. Common cold periods were identified in the 15th century, 1625–1645 AD, 1660–1700 AD, 1725–1775 AD, 1795–1830 AD, 1850–1870 AD, 1890–1920 AD, 1940–1950 AD, and 1975–1985 AD. The period 1725–1775 AD was one of the most prolonged cool periods during the past 400 years and corresponded to maximum Little Ice Age glacier advance of monsoonal temperate glaciers of the TP.  相似文献   

Accessory mineral U–Th–Pb ages and <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar eruption chronology,and their bearing on rhyolitic magma evolution in the Pleistocene Coso volcanic field,California     

Justin I. Simon  Jorge A. Vazquez  Paul R. Renne  Axel K. Schmitt  Charles R. Bacon  Mary R. Reid 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2009,158(4):421-446

We determined Ar/Ar eruption ages of eight extrusions from the Pleistocene Coso volcanic field, a long-lived series of small volume rhyolitic domes in eastern California. Combined with ion-microprobe dating of crystal ages of zircon and allanite from these lavas and from granophyre geothermal well cuttings, we were able to track the range of magma-production rates over the past 650 ka at Coso. In ≤230 ka rhyolites we find no evidence of protracted magma residence or recycled zircon (or allanite) from Pleistocene predecessors. A significant subset of zircon in the ~85 ka rhyolites yielded ages between ~100 and 200 Ma, requiring that generation of at least some rhyolites involves material from Mesozoic basement. Similar zircon xenocrysts are found in an ~200 ka granophyre. The new age constraints imply that magma evolution at Coso can occur rapidly as demonstrated by significant changes in rhyolite composition over short time intervals (≤10’s to 100’s ka). In conjunction with radioisotopic age constraints from other young silicic volcanic fields, dating of Coso rhyolites highlights the fact that at least some (and often the more voluminous) rhyolites are produced relatively rapidly, but that many small-volume rhyolites likely represent separation from long-lived mushy magma bodies.  相似文献   

Textured organic surfaces associated with the Ediacara biota in South Australia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

James G. Gehling  Mary L. Droser   《Earth》2009,96(3):196-128

The Ediacaran Period takes its name from the fossils of the Ediacara biota, which represent the first appearance of large and diverse assemblages of organisms in the fossil record. Although the global record of these distinctive body fossils is now well known, a previously unrecognized megascopic organic record of textured organic surfaces (TOS) occurs in the Ediacara biota. However, TOS is also a feature over a wider range of paleoenvironmental settings, where body fossils are unknown, in Ediacaran siliciclastic successions that have been studied in Australia, Namibia and western North America.Paleoecological analysis of successive bedding planes of strata from the late Ediacaran Rawnsley Quartzite in the Flinders Ranges of South Australia, reveals that TOS represent the most common organic features in bedding-surface assemblages of the Ediacara biota. The TOS consist of preserved, patterned assemblages of textured organic mats, fibers and simple tubular body fossils. Complex Ediacara body fossils while striking for their distinctive body plans, and dominating some of the beds, are relatively minor components of combined overall surface area. Many elements of TOS have previously been miss-diagnosed as trace fossils, which are in practice limited to two or at most three morphotypes that indicate the presence of Bilateria. Although TOS represent a simpler grade of organismic construction than discrete and more complex Ediacara body fossils, they were preserved in a similar manner. Marked variability in all components of the biota between successive surfaces suggests that Ediacara ecologies fluctuated at short intervals despite an apparently consistent sedimentary regime.  相似文献